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RevJP
Moderator
Joined: 18 Apr 2003
Posts: 7000
Location: USA
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 Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| ISI wrote: | | Wrong...and to think so just shows stupidity. |
Your rudeness not withstanding, everything else you said doesn't jive with the reality of the history of the planet.
If one were to believe the fantasy of evolution, and the extinction of species while the homosapiens prospered.
Why did other species die and not mankind? Simple luck?
Haven't you ever seen the movie soylent green?
BTW Iron, next time you feel it necessary to post something that hostile and completely rude, just turn off your computer - everyone will be grateful.
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JP's Mind - my blog
Psa 118:8 It is better to trust and take refuge in the Lord than to put confidence in man. |
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theseldomscene
Banned
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Posts: 7817
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| Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:10 pm Post subject: |
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 | jp wrote: | | Haven't you ever seen the movie soylent green? |
four times... .... |
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RevJP
Moderator
Joined: 18 Apr 2003
Posts: 7000
Location: USA
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| Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:18 pm Post subject: |
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Only 4?
That and the Omega Man at least a dozen times each (I won't even mention the dozens of times I've seen all the Planet of the Ape movies...)
_________________
JP's Mind - my blog
Psa 118:8 It is better to trust and take refuge in the Lord than to put confidence in man. |
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theseldomscene
Banned
Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Posts: 7817
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| Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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'when hell comes to frog town'...
3 times....i was really bored ok.... |
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Pondering
King of the Jungle
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 1501
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| Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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P#s, I'm all for your electric/alternative cars...sorry if I didn't seem exuberant 
I'm skipping over several posts here, but wanted to address these points in more detail...one point I'll start off with...As RevJP asks, I'm confident that humanity will adapt (again) to the environment we live in.
I'm not saying that there isn't merit to what the scientists observe...and, no I don't think it's a conspiracy...I do think there is alot of hype and group think that is led by a small number of folks with specific agendas....
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Human civilization is COMPLETELY dependent on the weather. The ONLY reason we were ever even able to stop grunting and start civilizations 8,000 years ago or so was because we were lucky and there was an especially long gap between ice ages. |
You mean, a gap like now?
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Our fate is intimately tied to the weather. A few years of drought could easily mean hundreds of millions of human deaths due to starvation. |
good thing the global population stands at about 6 billion or so, so that we can absorb the loss and our race continues...we're remarkabley resilient...as a species that is
| P1234567890 wrote: |
An increase of 5 degrees in the Earth's average temperature would be absolutely catastrophic, because that would mean that the temperature at the poles would increase by like 25 degrees. We could kiss our ice caps goodbye. |
You mean like the 3 to 4 previous historical periods when the Earth didn't have ice caps?
| P1234567890 wrote: |
First of all, consider the fact that we have about 6 billion people on the planet today, and we're ALREADY at each other's throats because of resource contention. We're ALREADY destroying the planet's ecosystems at an unprecedented rate. We are literally in the middle of the largest mass extinction in the history of life, including those times when massive asteroids hit the planet. |
That's an argument from emotion...not fact and the historical record doesn't support it.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Now imagine how things will be 50 or 100 years from now, when our ice caps are totally gone. |
Possibly true for the Artic...less probable for Anartica, but other than penguins and polar bears...not that big of deal..in total Earth history terms.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
By that time, there will be something like 11 billion people on the planet. But remember, the number of resources are fixed.
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Unfair assumption. Your basing that off of current reproductive rates compared to current resource consumption? But, if resource consumption becomes more efficient a rate equal to or greater than population growth, then the "crisis" is averted.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
This means that we'll have almost twice as many people, and like I said, we're ALREADY killing each other and fighting wars over resources. |
The newsflash here is....? that's been a principle backdrop of human civilization since Cain got ticked at Able.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Now throw into the mix the fact that the sea levels go up by about 3 meters or so. |
Overnite? I don't think so.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
This will displace something like a billion people and turn them into refugees. |
only if they're morons. Eventually man will have to concede the beaches and low ground, just as he settled it as the oceans receeded in our past.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Where are they going to go? |
I'm gonna vote "higher ground"?
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Just take Bangladesh as an example. Pretty much the entire inhabited portion of the country is at sea level. We're talking like 100 million refugees right there. They'll completely destabilize the region. |
Valid point, but there are DECADES to respond.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
And further complicating the issue will be the fact that we'll face much longer and harsher droughts than ever before, which means that we're not going to have enough food. |
I disagree...warmer climates support varied and longer growing seasons (Wine grapes grew in England twice in recorded history, i.e. since the Romans). This is baloney.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Do you remember how sad it was to watch the starvation in Ethiopia a couple of decades ago? Compared to what we're going to see, that was a picnic. |
Right, but corruption and inter-clan war was as critical to the famine creation there as the drought, if not more so....
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Another thing which will happen is that fresh water will become a resource over which wars will be fought. With our glaciers gone, and with so many more people, there won't be nearly enough fresh water to go around. It's going to be really bad... |
Horsehockey...we can purify/desalinate ocean water now. I have hope for the adaptability and creativity of mankind. Your model projects a) overnite catastrophe b) an assumption that human civilization has evolved in a static environment that only now is "challenged" by change c) people are ignorant and unadaptive....
| P1234567890 wrote: |
I think you're totally underestimating how grave the situation will be. |
I think you're grossly overestimating how rapid and traumatic the situation will be
_________________
Links of note:"Review for Doubting Christians"
Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs
“You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong...You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves.” - Ronald Reagan |
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RevJP
Moderator
Joined: 18 Apr 2003
Posts: 7000
Location: USA
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| Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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 ~ waiting for ISI to call Pondering stupid...
_________________
JP's Mind - my blog
Psa 118:8 It is better to trust and take refuge in the Lord than to put confidence in man. |
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Pondering
King of the Jungle
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 1501
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| Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:57 pm Post subject: |
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After the day I had today, that'd be an improvement!
_________________
Links of note:"Review for Doubting Christians"
Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs
“You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong...You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves.” - Ronald Reagan |
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 8175
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 12:01 am Post subject: |
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| Pondering wrote: |
I'm skipping over several posts here, but wanted to address these points in more detail...one point I'll start off with...As RevJP asks, I'm confident that humanity will adapt (again) to the environment we live in.
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Of course we will. We have big brains and we're good at adapting. I don't think that anyone is arguing that global warming is going to make us go extinct. Even in the 'Day After Tomorrow', humans as a species survived just fine.
So that's not the issue. The issue is that we're going to make the planet more unfriendly to life by causing thousands (millions?) of species to go extinct, and that we're going to make the planet more unfriendly to human civilization by ushering in an unprecedented era of famine, war, pestilence, suffering, and death.
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 8175
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 1:03 am Post subject: |
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| Pondering wrote: |
You mean, a gap like now?
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Yup; we're basically still in the warm gap which allowed human civilization to start off. Turning that into a hot gap is at our own peril.
| Pondering wrote: |
good thing the global population stands at about 6 billion or so, so that we can absorb the loss and our race continues...we're remarkabley resilient...as a species that is
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I agree, but think of how much human suffering you're going to see on TV over the next 50 years. I don't know about you, but I can only take so much of Sally Struthers' voice. If you don't like biodiversity or humanity, then fine, I can accept that. But you can't convince me that you want to hear Sally during every commercial break.
| Pondering wrote: |
You mean like the 3 to 4 previous historical periods when the Earth didn't have ice caps?
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Yup. And during those times, the planet was much less friendly towards life. Biodiversity was very low when compared with today, and we're losing species at an alarming rate.
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
First of all, consider the fact that we have about 6 billion people on the planet today, and we're ALREADY at each other's throats because of resource contention. We're ALREADY destroying the planet's ecosystems at an unprecedented rate. We are literally in the middle of the largest mass extinction in the history of life, including those times when massive asteroids hit the planet. |
That's an argument from emotion...not fact and the historical record doesn't support it.
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Actually, it's not an argument from emotion; it's completely factual. We are currently in the middle of the Holocene Extinction Event, and it has very strong scientific support. Here's what Wikipedia says:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_extinction
| Quote: | | Present day — the Holocene extinction event. A 1998 survey by the American Museum of Natural History found that 70% of biologists view the present era as part of a mass extinction event, possibly one of the fastest ever. Some, such as E. O. Wilson of Harvard University, predict that man's destruction of the biosphere could cause the extinction of one-half of all species in the next 100 years. Research and conservation efforts, such as the IUCN's annual "Red List" of threatened species, all point to an ongoing period of enhanced extinction, though some offer much lower rates and hence longer time scales before the onset of catastrophic damage. The extinction of many megafauna near the end of the most recent ice age is also sometimes considered a part of the Holocene extinction event. |
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
By that time, there will be something like 11 billion people on the planet. But remember, the number of resources are fixed.
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Unfair assumption. Your basing that off of current reproductive rates compared to current resource consumption? But, if resource consumption becomes more efficient a rate equal to or greater than population growth, then the "crisis" is averted.
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If resource consumption becomes more efficient, that just means that the population cap will be greater. Instead of having 11 billion people on Earth, we'll get 15 billion or something like that. Instead of having mass famine and disease and war at 11 billion, we'll have it a bit later. However, with more people on the planet, the biosphere suffers more. There aren't going to be any fish left in the sea:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20031123/fish_stocks_031123?s_name=&no_ads=
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
This means that we'll have almost twice as many people, and like I said, we're ALREADY killing each other and fighting wars over resources. |
The newsflash here is....? that's been a principle backdrop of human civilization since Cain got ticked at Able.
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There's a vital difference. In the past, the wars over resources were not based on the actual scarcity of the resources; they were based on their scarcity due to our inability to extract them. Today we can extract them just fine, and the scarcity is based on there just not being enough for 6 billion people. There CERTAINLY won't be enough for 11 billion people. We're going to get to the point where humans are going to have to decide whether or not we want to destroy the Amazon rainforest or have millions of human deaths. We're going to have to choose between the fish stocks in the sea going extinct and millions of human deaths. I'll predict right now that people aren't going to take one for the team and voluntarily starve so that fish don't go extinct.
| Pondering wrote: |
Overnite? I don't think so.
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They don't have to go up overnight. Every inch they go up will create more refugees. Eventually our capacity to handle all of these refugees will be overwhelmed. Entire economies will be destabilized. On top of that, the ocean is a big wobbly thing. As the sea level goes up, the probability of having devastating storm surges (which do happen overnight) goes up. Bangladesh might be able to handle the amount of flooding they get right now, but wait until the sea level goes up a few centimeters...
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
This will displace something like a billion people and turn them into refugees. |
only if they're morons. Eventually man will have to concede the beaches and low ground, just as he settled it as the oceans receeded in our past.
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Only if they're morons? Believe it or not, people seem to be perfectly happy building in flood plains, even after their first three homes were washed away. And believe it or not, there are people who don't believe that global warming is happening () and therefore don't feel like they need to move. There are also many people who CAN'T move because they're poor, or their neighboring countries won't let them in. Also, do you seriously think that Bangladesh's neighbors are going to take in millions of people RIGHT NOW because Greenpeace says that the ice caps are going to melt?
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Where are they going to go? |
I'm gonna vote "higher ground"?
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What about the people of Bangladesh? Where are they going?
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Just take Bangladesh as an example. Pretty much the entire inhabited portion of the country is at sea level. We're talking like 100 million refugees right there. They'll completely destabilize the region. |
Valid point, but there are DECADES to respond.
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And what would such a response look like? We're talking MILLIONS of refugees JUST from Bangladesh. It isn't the only place where the sea level will rise. Do you seriously think that the governments of the Earth have nearly enough resources to deal with that many people moving into their countries, even over many decades?
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
And further complicating the issue will be the fact that we'll face much longer and harsher droughts than ever before, which means that we're not going to have enough food. |
I disagree...warmer climates support varied and longer growing seasons (Wine grapes grew in England twice in recorded history, i.e. since the Romans). This is baloney.
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All of the computer models predict severe droughts leading to mass starvation, and not extended growing seasons leading to bumper crops.
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Do you remember how sad it was to watch the starvation in Ethiopia a couple of decades ago? Compared to what we're going to see, that was a picnic. |
Right, but corruption and inter-clan war was as critical to the famine creation there as the drought, if not more so....
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Actually, the latest theory is that their big famine was caused by global dimming, which reminds me that while global warming marches on during the next 100 years, China and India will continue to increase their burning of dirty fuels, thereby causing an increase in global dimming. This throws another monkey wrench into the equation, making things even more complicated. Global dimming means that less sunlight reaches the plants, which in turn means that they won't grow as well, which in turn means that people will starve, especially since there will be so many more people. Less food + more people = mass starvation.
| Pondering wrote: |
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Another thing which will happen is that fresh water will become a resource over which wars will be fought. With our glaciers gone, and with so many more people, there won't be nearly enough fresh water to go around. It's going to be really bad... |
Horsehockey...we can purify/desalinate ocean water now. I have hope for the adaptability and creativity of mankind. Your model projects a) overnite catastrophe b) an assumption that human civilization has evolved in a static environment that only now is "challenged" by change c) people are ignorant and unadaptive....
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WE can desalinate ocean water because we're rich. The vast majority of countries don't have the resources to build massive desalination plants. Now include the fact that we'll be adding like 5 billion people to the planet over the next 50 years...
| Pondering wrote: |
I think you're grossly overestimating how rapid and traumatic the situation will be |
I don't think so. I'm saying that the sea levels are rising right now, and that by 2050 they will have risen by enough to start causing problems. This will be exactly the time that the human population reaches its maximum. By that time we will have seriously depleted our fish stocks, and the situation will be primed for a major disaster. Then things will deteriorate until by 2100, the sea level will have gone up by about 2 to 3 feet.
If the ice sheet on Greenland melts completely, then the sea level will rise by about 20 feet.
And if the ice cap at the south pole melts completely, then the sea level will go up by about 200 feet. Everyone says that there is no danger of this happening, but we've already seen the complete collapse of the Larsen ice shelves in Antarctica...
This is not rapid. My scenario is going to take many decades, of not centuries to unfold.
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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IronSharpensIron
House Cat
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 172
Location: Seoul, Korea
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| Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 1:57 am Post subject: |
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| RevJP wrote: | | Somehow I was thinking he was referring to the continued 'war for oil' stupidity I keep seeing... |
I learned from the best...a mod no less...take yer own advice... have a good night Rev...
_________________
Proverbs 27:17
17 As iron sharpens iron,
so one man sharpens another. |
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IronSharpensIron
House Cat
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 172
Location: Seoul, Korea
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| Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 1:59 am Post subject: |
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Just in case you fergot...brother...it goes like this...
BTW RevJP, next time you feel it necessary to post something that hostile and completely rude, just turn off your computer - everyone will be grateful...
I totally agree with you on that ....
_________________
Proverbs 27:17
17 As iron sharpens iron,
so one man sharpens another. |
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RevJP
Moderator
Joined: 18 Apr 2003
Posts: 7000
Location: USA
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| Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 8:55 am Post subject: |
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Well said ISI.
I now can understand how you would equate me calling an unsupported assertion as stupid to your comments to me. Although, my points were supportable by experiential evidence and evolutionary theory.
_________________
JP's Mind - my blog
Psa 118:8 It is better to trust and take refuge in the Lord than to put confidence in man. |
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IronSharpensIron
House Cat
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 172
Location: Seoul, Korea
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| Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 2:41 am Post subject: |
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| RevJP wrote: | Well said ISI.
I now can understand how you would equate me calling an unsupported assertion as stupid to your comments to me. Although, my points were supportable by experiential evidence and evolutionary theory. |
Well...maybe i got a little too hot under the collar..i sincerely apologize RevJP...i was offended by what you said and that is not an excuse...please forgive me...it wont happen again.. 
_________________
Proverbs 27:17
17 As iron sharpens iron,
so one man sharpens another. |
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