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Pondering
Lion King
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 1369
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 Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:19 am Post subject: Nov Election Predictions |
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Maybe I already went on record, but I'm calling the November election...for McCain over Obama in a landslide....
Hillary's push for the nomination has brought out too much truth about Obama that he won't be able to spin out of...
the internal Dem fight has gotten so ugly that Hillary voters will either sit home or vote for McCain...Obama just alienated a huge base of working, rural whites, Christians, and 2nd Ammendment supporters with his comments in California....his "greatest speech since Abraham Lincoln" on race in defense of Rev Wright first hinted at his disdain for "typical white folks" and his California comments:
"“You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said. “And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
will cement that elitist, condescending view in peoples minds...
McCain however will draw enough Conservatives and the majority of centrist independent voters that it's gonna look like Reagan vs Mondale.
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45degreeN
King Kong
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
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Location: Salem Oregon
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 6:50 am Post subject: |
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You forget that McCain is a republican from Arizona and there has never been anyone from Arizona elected president, the last one to try got beat very badly.
Elitism is the pejorative that will condemn Obama?
I guess you can point to other elitists like Adlai Stevenson and say they cant be elected. But Obama's personal history will make the big difference. To a large extent every person that comes into the presidential campaign can be called elitist by the very nature of who even makes the effort. It is a bogus description.
I think the deciding factor in this election is the economy not the war. Yeah sure McCain might just be more qualified regarding his military credentials but he faces too many other dis-qualifiers. McCain's economic credentials are weak at best, contradictory to the rest of us and his personal history is not his finest feature either. Do you really think he can gather around him those "religious right" figures who so publicly disavowed him recently. What about the rest of the truly conservative republicans who bite their tongues when they mention his name, certainly no enthusiasm for his being president only a rejection of Hillary and if she isn't nominated they have lost the one reason for enthusiasm.
NO I dont see McCain elected, not at all.
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Pondering
Lion King
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 1369
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 7:53 am Post subject: |
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| 45degreeN wrote: | | You forget that McCain is a republican from Arizona and there has never been anyone from Arizona elected president, the last one to try got beat very badly. |
True, but I don't think state of origin really enters into it..
42 Presidents were born in 20 of the 50 states. Specific states of birth listed here.
| 45degreeN wrote: |
But Obama's personal history will make the big difference. To a large extent every person that comes into the presidential campaign can be called elitist by the very nature of who even makes the effort. It is a bogus description. |
Actually, I think racist socialist is the pejorative that's going to finish his campaign...
I and others are not simply "tagging" him as elitist, his own words and actions define him as "elitist"...it's the hallmark of the rich/powerful/successful Democrat....they rarely come from humble roots (Clinton, Kennedy) although Obama does...yet he has attended the finest schools, got a great well paid job (and his wife) and moves in circles of the rich and powerful while claiming to be "in it for the little guy".
Clinton suffers from the same problem.
| 45degreeN wrote: |
I think the deciding factor in this election is the economy not the war. |
that would be true if people voted on issues and not on identity...and the vast majority of Americans vote on Identity. Many Obama and Hillary supporters are single issue voters...and that issue is Identity. As mainstream America comes to understand that Identity, I think they'll be non-plussed.
Bush largely won the first time as a reaction to Clinton's affair...alot of soccer moms "liked" and "trusted" Bush more than Gore, even though, on it's face, Gore was more qualified.
| 45degreeN wrote: |
Yeah sure McCain might just be more qualified regarding his military credentials but he faces too many other dis-qualifiers. |
might? Really?
| 45degreeN wrote: |
McCain's economic credentials are weak at best, |
agree.
| 45degreeN wrote: |
contradictory to the rest of us |
First, how so?
Second, how do you define "the rest of us"?
| 45degreeN wrote: |
and his personal history is not his finest feature either. |
Really? how so? I'd say his personal history is his greatest strength. He admits that he was mostly a disrespectful punk until he was taken as a POW. That was a life changing event for him and an exceptional example for everyone else...he admitted he was wrong to oppose the MLK Jr Birthday national holiday and took the jeers of the crowd with humility...he's taken positions that alienate him from his party base, but has held to the courage of his convictions...I don't agree with many of those positions, but I respect that.
| 45degreeN wrote: |
Do you really think he can gather around him those "religious right" figures who so publicly disavowed him recently. |
No. I think they'll either sit out or give a protest vote for a 3rd party candidate...but I don't think they'll vote FOR the Dem candidate.
| 45degreeN wrote: |
What about the rest of the truly conservative republicans who bite their tongues when they mention his name, |
They'll probably hold their nose, bite their tongue and vote for McCain. They won't vote FOR the Dem.
| 45degreeN wrote: |
NO I dont see McCain elected, not at all. |
You may be right....we'll see soon enough 
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45degreeN
King Kong
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
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Location: Salem Oregon
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 9:09 am Post subject: |
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McCain's rejection by the religious right has been for three separate issues. His divorce record, his support of abortion (although he seems to have flip flopped on this one) and his support of gay rights(he maintains this position although not as publicly.) These are core issues for this constituency and I doubt that there will be any endorsements from them this year in favor of McCain.
McCain's well publicized criticism of the Bush tax cuts and his description of them as "unconscionable" will be broadcast over and over again during the national campaign, yet now he supports them? wants to keep them? What does this say about his character if the first statement is true. He has come out conclusively that his knowledge of economics remains limited meaning he will need to rely upon others to make decisions about these currently important issues.
Lastly McCain's immigration bill supported by extreme liberals like Kennedy. This bending over the line into no man's land will take out much of his core republican support. This could easily anchor McCain outside of the mainstream republican core and make it hardest for him to gain their support.
RE: Obama
I have yet to hear any mention of him being 'socialist,' maybe only within the people you group with, this comes out. I think this is primarily an insult of the right, (thrown at those liberals), who might not appreciate the socially responsible government programs which help people who cannot help themselves. In any legitimate sense it is not true.
I attribute Bush's victory to the religious right's being co-opted by Bush and having the evangelical crowd fall head over heals for someone they thought was one of them (he wasn't and isn't but the perception remains). This political faction was never a major supporter of McCain and will never offer more than lesser of two evils arguments in his favor, which doesn't offer any enthusiasm in his favor at all.
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FFT
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 26 Mar 2005
Posts: 6064
Location: Memphis
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: Re: Nov Election Predictions |
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| Pondering wrote: | | Maybe I already went on record, but I'm calling the November election...for McCain over Obama in a landslide.... |
Pretty much every poll I've seen has Obama over McCain.
There's always a chance of this, of course.
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RevJP
Moderator
Joined: 18 Apr 2003
Posts: 6886
Location: USA
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| Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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Surprisingly, I'm not in agreement with Pondering on this subject.
McCain certainly will get the conservative vote, if only to try to ensure a dem doesn't get elected, but on the other side of the fence, if Obama gets the nomination he will definitely get all the dem's votes.
There is no hard core right or left winger who will throw away their vote or jump the fence in regards to the presidency. The key will be the independents and the moderates. It will come down to who of the two (because shrillary is a done deal...) will be most palatable to that centrist group.
If McCain is unable to stand on his views in the storm of the extreme right wingers (abortion, gay rights, etc) then he will lose those votes.
I see a trend toward inspiration in this coming election, the one of the two that can be more Regan or Kennedy like in their campaign will win.
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45degreeN
King Kong
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 2530
Location: Salem Oregon
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:11 am Post subject: |
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No doubt that McCain is a one handed man in a two handed race if inspiration is the key to victory. He is as flat in his delivery as an ironing board. It is not about being calm either, Obama is usually as calm and cool as a person in his situation can be, but McCain is so old and out of energy that he just has not higher level energy.
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Trinity1
Emperor of the World
Joined: 02 Apr 2006
Posts: 3123
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:49 am Post subject: |
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| 45degreeN wrote: | | McCain's rejection by the religious right has been for three separate issues. His divorce record, his support of abortion (although he seems to have flip flopped on this one) |
Funny how its only when someone 'flops' towards pro-life is it ever an issue. Gore was once pro-life... no one spoke a word when he 'flopped' the other way.
| Quote: | | and his support of gay rights(he maintains this position although not as publicly.) These are core issues for this constituency and I doubt that there will be any endorsements from them this year in favor of McCain. |
Sorry 45... McCain has stated that he supports justices like Roberts and Alito. Lets face some facts here over this issue. Gay 'rights' is ultimately a non-issue. Why is it that someone is entitled to certain 'rights' simply by defining what they do? This issue will not be decided in the legislative process (as it has and should be - and has been decided to not be a 'right' after all). It will be decided in the only place where homosexuals have a chance... and that is the courts. If they can somehow convince the Judicial Branch to become Legislative... they might indeed have said chance. McCain’s stance is originality judges... who won't legislate.
| Quote: | | McCain's well publicized criticism of the Bush tax cuts and his description of them as "unconscionable" will be broadcast over and over again during the national campaign, yet now he supports them? wants to keep them? What does this say about his character if the first statement is true. |
Perhaps it might demonstrate that he was wrong initially, recognized the receipts to the treaury went through the roof once the cuts went into effect, they brought us out of a Clinton recession and through Wall Street scandals.... in other words... they worked... and he wants to be a smidge pragmatic.. not dogmatic... and go with what works. Obama on the other hand wants to raise Capital gains taxes... even after being told that every time they are raised, revenues go down. Why... rhetoric... not substance.
| Quote: | | Lastly McCain's immigration bill supported by extreme liberals like Kennedy. This bending over the line into no man's land will take out much of his core republican support. This could easily anchor McCain outside of the mainstream republican core and make it hardest for him to gain their support. |
He stated he would ensure the borders are secured first... we have to take him at his word. The alternative though... is Obama's open border entitlement for everyone who wants to break our laws. We simply have no choice.
| Quote: | RE: Obama
I have yet to hear any mention of him being 'socialist,' maybe only within the people you group with, this comes out. |
Does someone need to point out the obvious? He is a socialist... period. He is for the redistribution of wealth. He also has some issues with our country (not government mind you) or way of life. Anyone who would sit in a church for 20 years and listen to that idiot ‘pastor’ (I use the term loosely0 I would think agrees with it. No wonder his wife can now only say…. after living a privileged lifestyle… that she is proud of her country. 45… this guy is not what he seems… he has no substance… no record… and when his past and affiliations are exposed… he plays the race card… or at least has his lackys play it for him.
| Quote: | | I think this is primarily an insult of the right, (thrown at those liberals), who might not appreciate the socially responsible government programs which help people who cannot help themselves. In any legitimate sense it is not true. |
OK... you mentioned earlier in this thread Obama is not an elitist... however, here you insist that the government must help those who can't help themselves.... I would like you to tell me who are these people that can't help themselves, how does the confiscation of wealth from the private sector improve their lot in life (be sure to use citations demonstrating that this has EVER occurred as simply saying that it works doesn't cut it). Is it socially responsible for the government to destroy the best health care system in the world by taking it over or making me pay for someone else’s care? Is that social justice? What about me? I worked my entire life ensuring that I was responsibly taking care of my family... their welfare... health care... and education. Why should I have to pay for someone else’s failures to do the same? This is nothing more than what the Bolsheviks did in 1918… blame some else for their problems and then provide them exponentially higher levels of misery in return…
| Quote: | | I attribute Bush's victory to the religious right's being co-opted by Bush and having the evangelical crowd fall head over heals for someone they thought was one of them |
Who is this 'religious right'? I keep seeing you refer to them as some sort of constituency that somehow are misguided for actually voting their core values.... please tell me who they are and why it is somehow wrong for an elected official to seek their support.
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Exodus 20:11 "For in six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them..."
‘The German Führer, as I have consistently maintained, is an evolutionist; he has consciously sought to make the practice of Germany conform to the theory of evolution.’ Sir Arthur Keith |
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45degreeN
King Kong
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 2530
Location: Salem Oregon
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:58 am Post subject: |
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"Tempting Faith" by David Duo (a Bush appointee by the way)documents how Bush and more specifically the neo-cons co-opted the religious right. How they lead them to believe certain religious organization would be rewarded with Bush's presidency. He, as a political appointee, had an office in the white house and yet Bush seemed to totally ignore any of the recommendations Kuo made. Rejected all efforts by Kuo to fulfill those very same promises Bush made to them.
It was in that first Bush presidency that the religious right made the margin since they voted as a block, unlike any time previously or since.
My comments about McCain were meant to explain why I dont see him as a person of integrity, or principle but of political convenience. Very much like Bush.
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Trinity1
Emperor of the World
Joined: 02 Apr 2006
Posts: 3123
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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| 45degreeN wrote: | | It was in that first Bush presidency that the religious right made the margin since they voted as a block, unlike any time previously or since. |
Could that vote have had anything to do with his opponent?
| Quote: | | My comments about McCain were meant to explain why I dont see him as a person of integrity, or principle but of political convenience. Very much like Bush. |
Right... no integrity... just like Bush... got it. Would a man of no integrity spend 5 years in a POW camp getting the snot kicked out of him every day, starved to death, offered freedom but refuses to take it as he knows it would be used as a political ploy... nah… no integrity there… he is just like Bush… keeping reciting the party line 45N… some folks just might believe you.
But… your man of 'integrity' sits in pew for 20 years and listens to a man run his country into the ground every week... nodding all the while... and then comes out... "I didn't hear a thing". Yeah... your man of integrity is going to have to make 100s, if not 1000s of political appointments that effect people's everyday day life.... and he doesn't even realize that his own 'pastor' is a bigot. Your man of integrity is nothing of the sort... his political expedience makes McCain's, whom I am no big fan of BTW, look like Cinderella. This man is either really naïve, which disqualifies him from the job, really stupid, which should disqualify him from the job, or a liar… which doesn’t seem to bother folks on the left… evidently Billy C did a great job of conditioning folks of getting use to this type of behavior.
Please... your man is going to get the light of truth shinned in starry little eyes here directly... and all of you who have been hypnotized (to include a recalcitrant media) are going to wake up and say... who in the hell did we just nominate? Close your eyes if you wish. I know what McCain is... and have no problem pointing it out... along with everyone else. The opposite is not true though. The day of enlightenment does indeed draweth nigh 45N. I do hope you are prepared for the ugly raw truth of your candidate.
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Exodus 20:11 "For in six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them..."
‘The German Führer, as I have consistently maintained, is an evolutionist; he has consciously sought to make the practice of Germany conform to the theory of evolution.’ Sir Arthur Keith |
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45degreeN
King Kong
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Location: Salem Oregon
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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McCain signed a confession as a war criminal. How much "principle" does it take to refuse to do that. Many others did in fact refuse.
My opinion of McCain stands!
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RevJP
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 10:39 pm Post subject: |
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| 45 wrote: | McCain signed a confession as a war criminal. How much "principle" does it take to refuse to do that. Many others did in fact refuse.
My opinion of McCain stands! |
| Just after his release in May 1973, he detailed his experience as a P.O.W. in a lengthy account in U.S. News & World Report. wrote: | He described the day Hanoi Hilton guards beat him "from pillar to post, kicking and laughing and scratching. After a few hours of that, ropes were put on me and I sat that night bound with ropes."
"For the next four days, I was beaten every two to three hours by different guards . . . Finally, I reached the lowest point of my 5 1/2 years in North Vietnam. I was at the point of suicide, because I saw that I was reaching the end of my rope."
McCain was taken to an interrogation room and ordered to sign a document confessing to war crimes. "I signed it," he recalled. "It was in their language, and spoke about black crimes, and other generalities."
"I had learned what we all learned over there," McCain said. "Every man has his breaking point. I had reached mine." |
I think your 'opinion' is based on ignorance and blind hatred of anyone or anything not a left-winger. I challenge you to undergo just smidgen of what McCain and others have gone through before you start spouting off about integrity and principles.
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Trinity1
Emperor of the World
Joined: 02 Apr 2006
Posts: 3123
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| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 5:54 am Post subject: |
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| 45degreeN wrote: | | McCain signed a confession as a war criminal. How much "principle" does it take to refuse to do that. Many others did in fact refuse. |
Are you kidding 45N? I mean... seriously. You are honestly implying that what McCain went through is somehow null and void now... and justifies your opinion of him politically, because he signed a confession?
You know.. I'm wondering, based off of this response... did you spend any time in those airports spitting on the soldiers as they got of those planes when they came home from Vietnam?
| Quote: | | My opinion of McCain stands! |
45N... I don't even particularly care for McCain... I think some of his policies and actions of the past have been outright hostile to the very party he is now the Presidential nominee for... but if you are going to throw your lot in with a someone who has no problem cavorting with known terrorists... sits in a pew for twenty years worshiping under the pastorship of a bigot... and has not problem at all telling folks they are shallow because they actually pray to God and own guns... I can see why you wouldn't respect a man who did more for his country at the hands of its sworn enemies... as it seems you share your candidate's logic of... what did Bush call it yesterday... oh yeah... appeasement. Cowardice is most definitely one of those character traits we can all embrace…
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Exodus 20:11 "For in six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them..."
‘The German Führer, as I have consistently maintained, is an evolutionist; he has consciously sought to make the practice of Germany conform to the theory of evolution.’ Sir Arthur Keith |
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45degreeN
King Kong
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 2530
Location: Salem Oregon
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| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 5:54 am Post subject: |
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So you want this "broken man" as president? How many other POW's never signed those documents, how many died instead of signing them? Those were the ones who had principles.
No I don't wish he had died, but in the process of breaking down a person, certain lifelong trends come into that person.
In 2000 Bush insulted McCain over and over again insinuating to the people that McCain had some out of wedlock black child, even though Bush knew for certain that it was adopted. McCain's 2000 presidential aspirations were cut down by Bush in South Carolina and now McCain has endorsed those same tactics and positions of Bush. Sounds to me like some of that old POW "surrender feeling" came over him and now he 'signs the confession' again.
So many of the positions he had prior to 2000 have been set aside and now we have a clone of Bush for 2008.
Sorry but this is not a man of principle but a man of compromise, he will not stand up and hold onto the conservative principles when it comes to a fight in congress. He is a quizling
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Trinity1
Emperor of the World
Joined: 02 Apr 2006
Posts: 3123
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| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: |
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| 45degreeN wrote: | | So you want this "broken man" as president? |
No... I didn't write that. This had to deal with your disparagement of his Meritorious and Heroic Service to our country. If he was indeed broken to pieces in Vietnam I personally believe it is a testament of his strength of character to be able to function today as a normal human being. You obviously have no idea what that man went through and I can see from your commentary here you could care less what type of sacrifices he has made for his country. Your partisanship has blinded you (like most of your stripe) from recognizing something as obvious as McCain's heroics during his service. Your are so pathetically partisan and hypnotized by Obama’s rhetoric you can’t even see the obvious.
| Quote: | | In 2000 Bush insulted McCain over and over again insinuating to the people that McCain had some out of wedlock black child, even though Bush knew for certain that it was adopted. |
I've seen this assertion several times 45N.. would you please provide the citation and transcripts of Bush making these accusations... if you are going to write this... I am just going to ask you to cite where you read it.
| Quote: | | McCain's 2000 presidential aspirations were cut down by Bush in South Carolina and now McCain has endorsed those same tactics and positions of Bush. Sounds to me like some of that old POW "surrender feeling" came over him and now he 'signs the confession' again. |
You know... I've noticed this alot from Obama... anytime someone criticizes his policies or campaign statements they are always an attack. They never have anything to do with substance... only attacks on his character... or in some cases... his race. Now... you feel it is necessary to disparage McCain's 5 and half years of torture and suffering because Obama has spent the majority of his life at a country club liven large... and knows that he can't hold a candle to this man's character... you sir are pathetically shallow for even implying this.
_________________
Exodus 20:11 "For in six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them..."
‘The German Führer, as I have consistently maintained, is an evolutionist; he has consciously sought to make the practice of Germany conform to the theory of evolution.’ Sir Arthur Keith |
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