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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 7559
Location: Victoria, Canada
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 Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 3:31 pm Post subject: Some loser criticizing Earth Hour |
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Apparently some student at the University of Chicago named David Solomon decided to proclaim that Earth Hour was a complete waste. Here is what Wikipedia says about his criticism:
| Quote: | | Solomon used eight years of electricity usage data to conclude that the Earth Hour-inspired drop was only 6.33%, and that after other potential factors were taken into account, only 2.10%, "statistically indistinguishable from zero."[28] |
Since we have been discussing fallacies lately, I fell it apt to point out that this really is a slippery slope argument:
The Earth Hour organizers in Sidney claimed a 10% drop in power usage. Solomon Wittled this down to 6.33%, then whittled it down to 2.1%, and then argued that this is statistically indistinguishable from zero.
Does everyone here see the slippery slope?
Remember my example: 1 is close to 2, which is close to 3, which is close to 4, ..., which is close 999,999,999, which is close to a billion, and therefore 1 is close to a billion.
Solomon said that the Earth Hour results (10%) is actually more like 6%, which is actually 2.1%, which is statistically identical to 0%, and therefore the Earth Hour results are indistinguishable from 0.
I'm actually impressed how close to my paradigm example of a slippery slope he got... Maybe he reads this board!
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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RevJP
Moderator
Joined: 18 Apr 2003
Posts: 6886
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| Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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I don't know what 'earth hour' is, or why this dude bothered to waste his time worrying about it. However, I will point out that 'significance' starts at 5% (scientifically and statistically).
Meaning, that to be considered significant the factor has to be at or above 5%.
So, I wonder if whatever this Solomon dude was going on about was to try to show if something was significant or not.
BTW, I'm left wondering: who cares?
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JP's Mind - my blog
Psa 118:8 It is better to trust and take refuge in the Lord than to put confidence in man. |
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 7559
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 1:30 am Post subject: |
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| RevJP wrote: |
BTW, I'm left wondering: who cares? |
I found it to be an interesting coincidence that we'd been discussing slippery slopes just a couple of days ago, and then this textbook example just jumped out at me. I thought it was worth reporting.
Also, Earth hour was an event a couple of days ago in which a lot of people in many cities on Earth simultaneously turned off all of their lights in order to decrease greenhouse gases being produced.
It was a very successful event, and it was obviously a good thing. It makes no sense to me why someone would want to criticize it.
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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45degreeN
King Kong
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 2530
Location: Salem Oregon
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 5:30 am Post subject: |
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Given the huge Earth wide numbers I wonder just how much energy was saved. Even 1% of a huge number might be significant. But rounding downward without some legitimate reasoning to back it up is just like lying (maybe we all knew that anyway). It is the reason why many statistics lose respect.
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 7559
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 5:58 am Post subject: |
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| 45degreeN wrote: | | Given the huge Earth wide numbers I wonder just how much energy was saved. Even 1% of a huge number might be significant. But rounding downward without some legitimate reasoning to back it up is just like lying (maybe we all knew that anyway). It is the reason why many statistics lose respect. |
Yes, this is exactly what he was doing.
The bottom line is that in terms of cutting the amount of CO2 being produced, Earth Hour WAS insignificant (but NOT zero, like the dufus above alleged). But nobody thought that even if EVERYONE turned off their lights for one hour out of the whole year that it was going to save the world. That wasn't the point of it at all.
The point was to start something. Next year it will grow. And the year after that it will grow more. And pretty soon environmental awareness will spread. THAT is the point of it.
So even if he had made a LEGITIMATE argument, saying that saving a few hundred megawatt-hours is insignificant, he would have completely been missing the point. His slippery slope fallacy only made him look even more clueless.
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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Pondering
Lion King
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 1369
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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While the Gaia worshippers turned off their lights, I turned on every light in my house in order to celebrate mankind's 50,000 years of advancement and specifically to celebrate the success of Tesla, Bell, Ohm and the others that have helped create the modern world....
"Earth hour"....pu-leeeeeeze.
Al Gore burns more electricity in his house in year than all this junk "saved" combined....plus, they made such an "event" out of the event that tons of people drove their cars to the city icons to "see" the darkness.....ridiculous...vapid, emotional, and ineffective as related to its reason....put then the real reason was to make people "feel good" about themselves, so I guess in that regard, we both win 
_________________
Link to intro post of "who I am"
"Review for Doubting Christians"
Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs |
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 7559
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 2:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Pondering wrote: | | While the Gaia worshippers turned off their lights, I turned on every light in my house in order to celebrate mankind's 50,000 years of advancement and specifically to celebrate the success of Tesla, Bell, Ohm and the others that have helped create the modern world.... |
That's really mature of you.
| Pondering wrote: |
Al Gore burns more electricity in his house in year than all this junk "saved" combined.... |
That's not even close to true, and even if it was, you're seriously going to argue that because Gore is a hypocrite that everyone out there shouldn't bother trying to save the Earth? Nice reasoning...
| Pondering wrote: |
plus, they made such an "event" out of the event that tons of people drove their cars to the city icons to "see" the darkness.....ridiculous...vapid, emotional, and ineffective as related to its reason....
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The amount of CO2 saved far outstripped the CO2 created in the name of Earth Hour.
| Pondering wrote: |
put then the real reason was to make people "feel good" about themselves, so I guess in that regard, we both win |
The real reason was to spread the message and to get a movement going, and in that it was VERY successful. Just wait until next year; it will be even bigger.
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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Pondering
Lion King
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 1369
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| P1234567890 wrote: | | Pondering wrote: | | While the Gaia worshippers turned off their lights, I turned on every light in my house in order to celebrate mankind's 50,000 years of advancement and specifically to celebrate the success of Tesla, Bell, Ohm and the others that have helped create the modern world.... |
That's really mature of you. |
Thanks  ...just doing my part to "raise awareness"...whatever that means...you honestly think there isn't an American that hasn't had this GW tripe shoved down their necks?
| P1234567890 wrote: |
That's not even close to true, and even if it was, you're seriously going to argue that because Gore is a hypocrite that everyone out there shouldn't bother trying to save the Earth? Nice reasoning... |
OK...how about the conference in....Bali?...the big GW conference....any reason why all those folks had to travel to Bali? No effort to conduct a virtual conference using the Internet? It's this new fangled thing that allows people to connect all over the world and NOT fly jumbo jets to an island in the middle of nowhere...
doh! silly me.....all this GW stuff is for "the little people" while the Intellectuals (our natural betters) fly to Bali to discuss how to save us all....pu-leeze. As I said, I'll consider them serious when the people who tell me it's a crisis begin behaving like it's a crisis.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
The amount of CO2 saved far outstripped the CO2 created in the name of Earth Hour. |
unverifable I suspect either way...my point is everytime there is some stunt to "raise awareness", it draws massive crowds that consume resources to get there...I'm ok with that, but to deny it is willfull blindness to reality.
| P1234567890 wrote: |
The real reason was to spread the message and to get a movement going, and in that it was VERY successful. Just wait until next year; it will be even bigger. |
Really? you honestly think that people haven't "heard the message"? Trust me, they have...and think it's full of bunk...which it pretty much is.
here's a tip...Let's have all the GW believers hold their breath for say 30 days....that should cut way down on the global CO2 levels....(which have next to nothing to do with the Earth's climate anyway...but meh)
_________________
Link to intro post of "who I am"
"Review for Doubting Christians"
Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs |
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 7559
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Pondering wrote: |
Really? you honestly think that people haven't "heard the message"?
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Clearly they haven't. It's the old tragedy of the commons phenomenon... Nobody wants to do anything about it because the change in lifestyle would be unpleasant and because they figure that they're only a drop in the bucket anyways, so why bother...
| Pondering wrote: |
Trust me, they have...and think it's full of bunk...which it pretty much is.
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Which part? The part that say the Earth is warming? The part that says that CO2 levels are increasing? The part that says the humans are the cause? All of the above? Which part is bunk?
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 7559
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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On a separate note, would you do me a favor and please go vote in the Creation vs. Evolution forum?
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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| Back to top |
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RevJP
Moderator
Joined: 18 Apr 2003
Posts: 6886
Location: USA
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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| P123... wrote: | | The real reason was to spread the message and to get a movement going, and in that it was VERY successful. Just wait until next year; it will be even bigger. |
I hesitate to even mention that the intent was soooo successful that I, nor anyone I know, nor the local newscasts, or newspapers, knew about it or talked about it.
_________________
JP's Mind - my blog
Psa 118:8 It is better to trust and take refuge in the Lord than to put confidence in man. |
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 7559
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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| RevJP wrote: | | I hesitate to even mention that the intent was soooo successful that I, nor anyone I know, nor the local newscasts, or newspapers, knew about it or talked about it. |
Really?
That could be because it seems to be isolated to different cities which participated. It could just be that your city didn't participate. Maybe next year...
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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Pondering
Lion King
Joined: 15 Sep 2005
Posts: 1369
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, no problem, I'll go vote in the poll in a second...
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Clearly they haven't [heard the message]. It's the old tragedy of the commons phenomenon... Nobody wants to do anything about it because the change in lifestyle...
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Now there is a difference betwen "hearing the message" and "agreeing with the message"....I'm saying "they've heard the message and reject it"...you seem to be saying "they've heard the message, agree with it, but feel unmotived/impotent"...shouting it louder or turning of the lights for an hour doesn't make it more true...it just makes it more of a temper tantrum...
| P1234567890 wrote: |
Which part is bunk? |
This part: The part that says the humans are the cause. No need to rehash here, we can do that in the other thread
_________________
Link to intro post of "who I am"
"Review for Doubting Christians"
Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs |
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P1234567890
Emperor of the Universe
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 7559
Location: Victoria, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Pondering wrote: | Yes, no problem, I'll go vote in the poll in a second...
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Thanks; you're the only other person besides me who has answered in the affirmative!
| Pondering wrote: |
Now there is a difference betwen "hearing the message" and "agreeing with the message"....I'm saying "they've heard the message and reject it"...you seem to be saying "they've heard the message, agree with it, but feel unmotived/impotent"...shouting it louder or turning of the lights for an hour doesn't make it more true...it just makes it more of a temper tantrum...
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I actually think that *most* people have kind of heard about global warming, but then forget about it right away and continue to live their lives just like they're used to.
_________________
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction."
-Blaise Pascal
"...with or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil -that takes religion..."
-Steven Weinberg
"I would bless my children with your destruction instead."
-Someone who shall remain anonymous. |
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45degreeN
King Kong
Joined: 02 Aug 2005
Posts: 2530
Location: Salem Oregon
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| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:03 am Post subject: |
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P123 Your faith in people is remarkable you wrote | Quote: | | I actually think that *most* people have kind of heard about global warming, but then forget about it right away and continue to live their lives just like they're used to. |
If people hear (and understand the message) as it is shouted from the tree tops and they are filled with dread that their world is forever changing, it is not forgotten. Pondering is right, most likely they are rejecting this message.
It appears that the global warming people feel they must hit everyone over the head until they accept their prophecy and begin to do something about it.
Well even the Biblical prophets were ignored so what makes these global warming people so special that they mustn't be ignored.
_________________
My boss is a Jewish carpenter.
Read the
www.Christian-Thinktank.com |
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